SEAM: A Small-Scale Euro Area Model With Forward-Looking Elements

This paper presents a small-scale estimated macro model for the euro area (SEAM) designed primarily to generate forecasts and to evaluate the dynamic response of the economy to unanticipated and anticipated shocks. One crucial feature of SEAM is the presence of forward-looking elements, which makes the model forecasts more robust to the 'Lucas critique', since it allows economic decisions to be moulded by the future impact of 'surprise' policy actions. In what concerns the reliability of the model-simulations, the inclusion of forward-looking behaviour enriches the dynamics of the response of the model's endogenous variables to exogenous shocks. Although the SEAM does not have the richness of full-scale macroeconometric models, as apparent interalia, by the absence of a steady-state analogue and also of some relationships important for a better characterisation of the euro area economy, the model has been shown to deliver reasonable forecasts and responses to shocks that are consistent with conventional wisdom.

Iterated local search algorithm for the vehicle routing problem with backhauls and soft time windows

The vehicle routing problem with backhauls and soft time windows contains two disjoint sets of customers: those that receive goods from the depot, who are called linehauls, and those that send goods to the depot, named backhauls. To each customer is associated an interval of time (time window), during which each one should be served. If a time window can be violated it is called soft, but this violation implies an additional cost. In this paper, only the upper limit of the interval can be exceeded. For solving this problem we created deterministic iterated local search algorithm, which was tested using a large set of benchmark problems taken from the literature. These computational tests have proven that this algorithm competes with best known algorithms in terms of the quality of the solutions andcomputing time. So far as we know, there is no published paper for this problem dealing with soft time windows, and, therefore, this comparison is only with the algorithms that do not allow time windows violation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The timing and the probability of FDI: an application to the US multinational enterprises

An 'option-pricing' model is employed to analyse when a firm should expand its production capabilities abroad. In a framework where the firm's profits are determined by some average of the attractiveness of the home and foreign countries, and attractiveness in each country follows differentiated Brownian motions, this paper derives an optimal trigger value for FDI. The model shows that, contrary to the NPV rule, FDI entry should be optimally delayed the greater the uncertainty surrounding the future path of attractiveness in both locations. The second part of the paper is devoted to empirically test the results of the model. Drawing on data of FDI from the US into a panel of developed and developing countries and using labour costs as a proxy for (the reciprocal of) attractiveness, our estimation overwhelmingly confirms the results of the model, namely that FDI entry events are negatively related to the uncertainty surrounding attractiveness.Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Enterprises, Option-Pricing Model; Ordered Probit Model for Panel Data.

The Timing and Probability of FDI: An Application to the United States Multinational Enterprises

An "option-pricing" model is employed to analyse when a firm should expand its production capabilities abroad. In a framework where the firm's profits are determined by some average of the attractiveness of the home and foreign countries, and attractiveness in each country follows differentiated Brownian motions, this paper derives an optimal trigger value for FDI. The model shows that, contrary to the NPV rule, FDI entry should be optimally delayed the greater the uncertainty surrounding the future path of attractiveness in both locations. Another important result is that MNEs do not regard FDI as a risk diversification tool. The second part of the paper is devoted to empirically test the results of the model. Drawing on data of FDI from the US into a panel of developed and developing countries and using labour costs as a proxy for (the reciprocal of) attractiveness, our estimation confirms the results of the model, in particular that FDI entry events are negatively related to the uncertainty surrounding attractiveness.

The Locational Determinants of the U.S. Multinationals Activities

This paper examines empirically a range of theoretical hypotheses about the determinants of FDI location in a panel data regression framework. The results of the estimation of a gravity model lend support to the proximity-concentration and internalisation hypotheses. Also, the fact that FDI has been found to be decreasing in the competition posed by alternative locations is suggestive of the superiority of the share version of the gravity model over its classical formulation. A panel data cointegration-type analysis between FDI and GDP, and per capita income differential suggests that GDP has a positive impact on FDI, but provide mixed evidence as to whether per capita income differential reflects demand or supply determinants of FDI. Causality tests between income, income differential and FDI points to FDI playing a positive role on economic growth and convergence.

Ensinar e aprender a escrever no século XXI: (re)configurando um velho objeto escolar

No presente texto, procura-se perspetivar a escrita enquanto objeto escolar numa lógica de planos sucessivos e articulados: num primeiro plano, situamos a relação entre o sujeito (que aprende a escrever) e a escrita (o objeto da aprendizagem) no contexto da aula de língua; a relação da escrita com os outros domínios de uso da linguagem, também eles objetos de ensino-aprendizagem, constitui o segundo plano da nossa análise; o terceiro plano considerado enquadra a escrita no contexto das diferentes disciplinas escolares, relevando o seu papel nos processos de aquisição, elaboração e expressão do conhecimento; finalmente, num quarto plano, perspetiva-se a participação, pela escrita, no quadro mais alargado da escola enquanto comunidade e na(s) comunidade(s) em que a escola e os sujeitos se inserem. A análise desenvolvida pressupõe a mobilização de referenciais teóricos de natureza diversa, compatibilizando diferentes perspetivas, e não deixa de ter em conta a evolução a que a escrita tem estado sujeita, com impacto nos meios, nos processos, nos modos de construir sentido e nos produtos textuais deles resultantes; igualmente pertinentes nos parecem ser as transformações profundas da própria escola, enquanto contexto social e de aprendizagem, tendo em conta os sujeitos que a frequentam e os usos da linguagem com os quais estão familiarizados